Dozens of Chinese ships descended on Second Thomas Shoal Friday because Beijing was probing what it sees as a weak link in the Philippines' presence in the strategic South China Sea, according to analysts.
The showdown took place as five Philippine ships, en route to resupply the Philippine marines stationed at the World War II-era tank landing ship the BRP Sierra Madre, were intercepted by more than twice as many Chinese vessels, which video footage shows boxing in, or what the Philippines has called "corralling" the ships. A Chinese crew also blasted a Philippine ship with a water cannon.
Second Thomas Shoal, which Manila calls Ayungin Shoal and Beijing calls Renai Jiao, is a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines deliberately grounded the Sierra Madre there in 1999 to lay claim to the feature, and the marines living there rely on regular shipments of supplies, as well as construction materials, to keep the dilapidated hulk together.
China now sees Second Thomas Shoal as the Philippines' "most vulnerable outpost in the South China Sea," Jeffrey Ordaniel, director of Maritime Programs at Honolulu-based foreign policy research institute Pacific Forum, told Newsweek. "Hence, the sustained gray zone coercion. Other Philippine outposts like the one on Thitu and Loita Cay, are more permanent and will probably take more than gray zone coercion to dislodge."
The Rand Corp. think tank defines Beijing's gray zone tactics as "coercive Chinese government geopolitical, economic, military, and cyber and information operations activities beyond regular diplomatic and economic activities and below the use of kinetic military force."
"This is yet another attempt by the [People's Republic of China] to change the status quo by coercion," Ordaniel said, adding that the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which was agreed after the Sierra Madre was grounded, requires all signatories—including China—to respect the status quo.
"The Second Thomas Shoal is a low tide elevation, which under international law cannot be subjected to a territorial sovereignty claim," Ordaniel said.
However, he pointed out, it is situated within the Philippines' 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). It sits some 600 miles from China's southernmost province of Hainan, but—like most of the South China Sea—that is still within China's self-imposed "nine-dash line."
The nine-dash line is at odds with the territorial claims of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 ruled against Beijing's sweeping claim in Philippines v. China, but China continues to ignore the ruling.
An EEZ is an area within which a country claims sole rights to exploit resources found in those waters. It extends 200 miles beyond the country's internationally recognized territorial waters.
"China Coast Guard and Chinese Maritime Militia vessels recklessly harassed, blocked, and executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to the Ayungin Shoal," Manila's National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement on Friday.
At least 38 Chinese coast guard, unofficial maritime militia, and naval vessels were detected sailing near Second Thomas Shoal Friday, though only 11 allegedly acted aggressively toward their counterparts from the Philippines.
The Chinese coast guard said in a statement that it had "followed and supervised" two unauthorized Philippine transport vessels and three coast guard ships "in accordance with the law."
The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment.
China's maritime forces have notably ramped up their assertive posture in the area since the inauguration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines, whose administration has steered the country closer to the U.S., with whom it enjoys a mutual defense treaty, after years of warmer ties with China under former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
"China seeks to outlast the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal until either the ship breaks up or otherwise becomes uninhabitable, or until Manila grows weary of running the blockade," Ray Powell, SeaLight director at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, told Newsweek.
In October, in another attempt to prevent a routine supply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, a Chinese coast guard ship and maritime militia ship collided with a Philippine supply boat and coast guard cutter, respectively. No one was reported injured, though the supply boat was forced to turn back for repairs.
U.S. President Joe Biden responded to the incident by stressing Washington's commitment to mutual defense with its oldest Asian ally is "ironclad." The U.S. has repeatedly affirmed the treaty extends to any Philippine assets that may come under attack in the South China Sea.
"The alliance suffered a couple of setbacks during the last decade—first when China seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012 and the U.S. was seen as not acting strongly in the Philippines' defense; then secondly during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, who sought to reorient Philippine policy away from the U.S.," Powell said.
Aside from its defense commitments to Manila, Washington's second priority in the area is "constraining China's aggressive expansionism and its revisionist policies toward the 'rules-based international order,' which has largely prevailed since World War II," Powell said, saying this aim of Beijing's is front and center in the sea.
Scarborough Shoal is another contentious point of friction between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea.
In February of this year, a China Coast Guard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at Philippine patrol vessel BRP Malapascua as it plied waters near the atoll. The beam temporarily blinded crew members, according to the Philippine Coast Guard.
U.S. Pacific Fleet commmander Adm. Samuel Paparo, whom Biden has nominated to helm Indo-Pacific Command, said last week he believes China is directing its forces to act aggressively in order to make other nations think twice about sailing through waters the country claims as its own.
"I think the PRC are pressing unlawful claims with no basis in international law or custom," Paparo said. "They are operating under the logic of military power. They want to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that U.S. and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in."
Collin Koh, research fellow at Singapore's Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, warned that if China succeeds in gaining control of Second Thomas Shoal, it would raise the chances of escalation between the U.S. and China.
"A Chinese seizure and occupation of Second Thomas Shoal looks set to sharpen tensions with the Philippines and give rise to increased frequency of maritime standoffs and possible armed clashes," he said.
If the Philippines decides to replace the aging ship there as an outpost, "it's most likely to seek Washington's help to fend off the anticipated Chinese attempt to obstruct such a move," he said.
This consequently could result in potential direct confrontation between American and Chinese forces in the area.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
