Student Aid Expert Sounds Alarm on 2024 College Enrollment

A student aid expert is warning others that 2024 college enrollment is going to drop after FAFSA applications reached a record low this year.

The National College Attainment Network found only 32 percent of the 2024 high school graduating class submitted a FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) application as of last month, a 30.7 percent drop from the same time last year.

Ellie Bruecker, the interim director of research at The Institute for College Access and Success, a non-profit education research organization, said these numbers suggest there will likely be a decline in overall college enrollment in 2024.

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"It indicates how many high school seniors are at least considering postsecondary education by taking that step to apply for financial aid," Bruecker told Newsweek. "With so many fewer students clearing that hurdle at this point in the year, I think we certainly need to be concerned about how many fewer students might never do so."

Many students may forego college entirely and enter the workforce or simply delay starting higher education until next year.

Employers have been complaining about the skills (or lack thereof) college students bring to the table in recent years. The Freedom Economy Index (FEI), which is run by job recruiting companies RedBalloon and PublicSquare, discovered businesses feel college degrees mean little when it comes to preparing students for the workforce.

When asked if institutions of higher education were graduating students with "relevant skills that today's business community needs," 67 percent of employers said "strongly no."

And with the rising rates of student debt reaching around $1.6 trillion, many students are opting for lower cost options, like community college or trades.

"In the past college was almost always a good investment," attorney Michael Lux, who also founded The Student Loan Sherpa, told Newsweek. "Today, after decades of price increases that significantly outpaced inflation, college is no longer a sure thing. As a result, some consumers have concluded that it isn't worth the risk. Seeing the nightmares that many student loan borrowers experience, it is hard to blame them."

Read more: Compare Top Student Loan Rates

Still, Bruecker cautions Americans from abandoning higher education entirely.

"A college degree still provides the best chance for economic mobility for today's students, and we're concerned that many of them may miss that chance because of the problems with the FAFSA this year," Bruecker said.

A major reason for the potential low enrollment rates is the new version of the FAFSA. It debuted this year, but students and their families have been complaining about various issues associated with the new form since it went live.

While this version reduced the number of questions and also integrated a new formula to boost financial aid eligibility for low-income students, it was significantly delayed in its rollout.

While typically the FAFSA opens on October 1, the application only went live on December 30. And after that, applicants reported mass technical glitches until the end of January.

"Colleges are doing their best right now to process FAFSAs on a significantly shorter timeline, and for colleges with smaller financial aid offices, that's likely to be a really stressful time for not just students but also staff," Bruecker told Newsweek.

Bruecker said colleges will likely need to delay their decision deadlines in order to give students more time to weigh their options after financial aid letters are issued.

If colleges fail to secure the enrollment numbers, there could be significant consequences for all of society, Lux added.

People with college degrees pay more in taxes and rely less on social safety nets, meaning the government might have a challenging financial problem on its hands. Additionally, there could be severe shortages in skilled workers entering the workforce, leading to gaps in certain industries or professions.

Colleges themselves could be put at risk, and the less profitable ones with low enrollments could close altogether.

"Today's learners are calling for a fundamentally different type of education, seeking learning opportunities that are not only affordable but directly relevant to their career goals and life aspirations," James Watts, founder of EdTech platform Teach.io, told Newsweek. "There is a clear, growing disenchantment with traditional college education, especially with the demands of the modern workforce and the rising cost of living not matching up with the costs associated with a degree."

But until colleges lower their costs, Lux anticipates the enrollment rates will continue to trail down.

"Holding steady isn't enough," Lux said. "Elected officials, state and federal, need to takes steps to make attending college less of a financial risk. Colleges need to find ways of lowering costs for all students."