Texas Secession Would Mean Millions of Seniors Lose Medicare

If Texas seceded from the United States, residents might be in for a brutal pushback when it comes to Medicare benefits, experts told Newsweek.

While Texas is amid a border crisis, with Governor Greg Abbott disclosing last week that more than six million migrants passed into the United States within the last three years, a movement pushing for the Southern state to leave the country has emerged online, with roughly 211,000 people following the Texas Nationalist Movement page on Facebook.

Those in favor of Texas's independence from the United States might be troubled to learn leaving the country could have dire impacts on benefits like Social Security and Medicare.

While Medicare is generally available to seniors who worked in the United States even if they're non-citizens, experts say a secession could put a wrench in those plans.

"In the event of Texas seceding from the United States, the status of Medicare benefits for Texas residents would be highly uncertain and dependent on the terms of secession," True Tamplin, the founder of Finance Strategists, told Newsweek. "If Texas were to become an independent nation, it would no longer be part of the U.S. Medicare system, as Medicare is a federal program operated by the U.S. government."

Unless a special agreement or treaty was approved between the Texan government and the United States, Texas residents would be likely to lose access to all their Medicare benefits.

Generally, seniors become eligible for Medicare at age 65 as long as they've worked in the United States and paid Medicare taxes for at least 10 years. This is true regardless of if you're a non-citizen or permanent resident.

"Depending on how things shake out, seniors who previously depended on Medicare for health coverage might find themselves without any health insurance," Tamplin said. "This could lead to a substantial increase in healthcare costs for the elderly population in Texas, potentially impacting their health and financial stability."

Due to these repercussions, the Texan government would likely be forced to create a new healthcare system or insurance program to replace Medicare.

"My guess is seniors who depended on Medicare would likely get grandfathered into that new insurance program," Tamplin said.

Other finance experts doubted the feasibility of Texas being able to hold onto federal benefits like Medicare if they did, in fact, leave the United States.

"While hypothetically it's possible that secession could occur without forfeiting Medicare benefits, the reality is likely quite different," financial advisor and Houston First Financial president Christopher Hensley told Newsweek.

If Texas did secede, it seems unlikely the state would be able to successfully negotiate to keep benefits and the idea demonstrates a "certain sense of entitlement," Hensley said.

"In reality, it's probable that we would lose most, if not all, of our federal benefits in a secession scenario," he added.

This would also include many essential American benefits like the protection of federal rights and liberties, division of power, democratic representation and the rule of law, Hensley said.

Is Secession Likely?

Beyond the implications of benefits like Medicare and Social Security is the very real question of whether Texas could even successfully secede.

In a Texas v. White Supreme Court ruling from 1868, justices said secession is not permitted under the U.S. Constitution.

Hensley said the idea of secession often pops up during election years but rarely leads to any substantial political movement.

"The idea of Texas, or any state, seceding from the Union remains, in my opinion, an election year 'nothing burger,'" Hensley said. "It's a concept that garners attention but lacks practical substance. No state has successfully seceded since the Civil War, and doing so would mean abandoning the myriad benefits of the social contract established upon joining the United States."

While the discussion around Texas seceding from the United States might make compelling discourse, Hensley believes these conversations neglect to take into account just how many benefits Texans earn from their participation in the United States.

"The potential loss of Medicare and other federal benefits only scratches the surface of what's at stake," Hensley said. "It's crucial to consider the full breadth of implications that such a drastic move would entail."