Trees Could Help Predict Volcanic Eruptions, Say Geologists

Trees and plants could one day help predict volcanic eruptions, geologists have discovered.

This is because some trees are extremely sensitive to changes in volcanic gases, a new study published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, and Geosystems said. And these changes are actually visible from space.

The study, led by Robert Bogue of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Canada's McGill University, focused on data from Yellowstone National Park between 1984 and 2022.

"We detected signals of this increased health from 1984 to 2001 in Yellowstone National Park, USA," the study said. "One area of the forest that was exposed to volcanic gasses was healthier than nearly identical, nearby forests growing without the influence of the volcano."

Volcano and forest
A volcano is surrounded by a lush forest. One day, trees could help scientists predict a coming eruption, according to a study. Gani Pradana Ongko Prastowo/Getty

This suggests that volcanic carbon dioxide and water are beneficial to the trees and their vegetation. But when volcanic activity increases, it starts to harm the trees' health. The researchers found that plants browned as eruptions grew closer.

"Theoretically this can work at any volcano which has trees and has a reasonable number of days per year where it is not cloudy—we can't make these measurements at all when it is cloudy," Bogue told Newsweek. "As for how long it will take to be put into practice, that's not an easy question to answer. We are currently working on a follow-up study to confirm our findings by taking samples at the site described in the paper, so it will somewhat depend on how our findings from that develop. I'd say the finding were a bit surprising but overall in line with what we expected to find. Our findings line up pretty well with theory in this case so while we weren't sure we would find anything, if we did find something it would probably look more or less like this."

"We detected increases in plant stress caused by increases in soil temperature and sulfur emissions before they were detectable by other types of satellites," the study said. "Combining these two contrasting effects represents a promising new path for additional monitoring of active volcanoes."

This finding is not only fascinating but could be useful in predicting volcanic eruptions one day.

Although scientists can guess if an eruption is about to take place based on the activity a volcano is displaying, eruptions are generally quite difficult to predict. Sometimes there will be many signs of an impending eruption, but one does not take place. Other times there is little warning before an eruption occurs.

For this reason, scientists are always on the lookout for new ways to measure volcanic activity.

From these findings, scientists using satellites may one day be able to predict eruptions based on the health of vegetation surrounding volcanoes.

Although the technique may not work for some volcanoes, it could prove particularly useful for volcanoes like Mount Etna in Italy and the Taal Volcano in the Philippines because forests and trees surround these mountains, New Delhi Television reported.

In some cases, timely predictions of volcanic eruptions can save lives. Many deadly volcanic eruptions occurred at times when experts knew little about the science behind the phenomenon.

However, a lot more research will need to be done before the assessment of trees and plants is a viable method for predicting eruptions.

"Combining ground-based plant and gas emission measurements with our satellite approach could yield a much more comprehensive understanding of volcanic volatile emissions than either approach individually," the study read.

Update, 1/3/24, 3:38 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a quote from Robert Bogue.

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About the writer


Robyn White is a Newsweek Nature Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on wildlife, science and the ... Read more

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