Russian forces on Ukraine's eastern front are intensifying their attacks in a bid to capitalize on the recent seizure of the fortress town of Avdiivka, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat to less established defensive positions, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
The U.S.-based think tank's Tuesday update noted that following a brief respite, Moscow's troops are now "attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations."
The fortified settlement fell earlier in February, after two years of intense combat as part of Russia's full-scale invasion. It had served as a key garrison for Kyiv's forces since 2014, when a Russian-sponsored and directed separatist uprising seized swathes of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and Moscow annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
Ukrainian leaders and commanders have blamed a lack of Western munitions for the withdrawal from Avdiivka, which was left untenable after months of Russian advances around its flanks. Ukrainian troops there were outgunned on the ground and in the air.
The ISW suggested that Russian forces are now seeking to capitalize on their success, despite reportedly massive casualties sustained in taking Avdiivka.
Moscow's troops, it said, are aiming to push "as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area."
"Russian forces temporarily decreased their tempo of operations as they cleared Avdiivka following the Russian seizure of the settlement on February 17, but have since resumed a relatively high tempo of assaults further west and northwest of Avdiivka," the think tank explained.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
The focus of the ongoing push is the western edges of the town, with heavy fighting reported in the settlements of Berdychi, Orlivka and Tonenke, "where Ukrainian forces established immediate defensive positions to cover their withdrawal from Avdiivka and to receive oncoming Russian offensive operations," the update said.
There, the pro-Kyiv Tatarigami_UA channel wrote on X—formerly known as Twitter, the "state of prepared fortifications" are "disappointing."
"The defenses are not as nearly good as the ones the Russians have built," the channel, run by a Ukrainian military officer in reserve, wrote. "Solid strategic fortifications require joint efforts of the General Staff, Ministry of Defense, and civilian government—it cannot be accomplished solely with the resources of exhausted brigades or individual battalions."
Such concerns were echoed by Ukrainian military analyst Konstantyn Mashovets on his Telegram channel. "The enemy fully understands that if he stops, the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will gain a foothold and build a defense system, which will again have to be 'gnawed through' at the cost of significant losses and resources," he wrote.
The fallback Ukrainian defenses now in the line of the Russian advance, he added, are "problematic" rather than "prepared."
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David Brennan is Newsweek's Diplomatic Correspondent covering world politics and conflicts from London with a focus on NATO, the European ... Read more
