Two years ago this week, the Taliban returned to Kabul with a vengeance. The insurgent group that fought U.S. and Afghan government troops for two decades were able to sweep into Afghanistan's capital city without the slightest resistance from the very same Afghan security forces built and trained to the tune of $90 billion across four successive U.S. administrations. The Taliban, well versed in the intricacies of wheeling-and-dealing at the local level, threatened or bribed Afghan forces to surrender. Afghan troops and police officers, many of whom were stuck on remote outposts in Taliban-surrounded territory and unpaid for months, decided there was no point in fighting for a lost cause.
Fast-forward to today, and the Taliban are firmly entrenched. This week, the Taliban government organized a celebration in Kabul for what they termed "independence day," or victory over the U.S.-led military coalition and the Afghan authorities it backed to the hilt for two decades. Yet celebrations of victory aside, Afghanistan can be charitably called a work-in-progress. The Taliban are still trying to transition from an insurgent movement into an effective government, and foreign powers, including the U.S., are still trying to learn how to deal with the new authorities.
Whether Afghanistan is faring well or poorly depends on who you ask. The Taliban are attempting to persuade the international community that Afghanistan is far better off today than it was under the U.S.-backed Afghan government, which was riddled with systemic corruption, relied on international donors for approximately three-quarters of its budget, and was composed of senior officials who were often detached from what was going on. Organizations focusing on human rights have a different opinion, pointing to the Taliban's restrictions on women's rights as well as a tendency to take a heavy hand against anyone showing the slightest form of dissent.
Economically, there is no beating around the bush: Afghanistan is in dire straits. This was inevitable the moment the U.S. and other donors pulled money from the country, stopped providing Kabul with budgetary support, and suspended roughly $9.5 billion in Afghan reserves, $7 billion of which is parked in the U.S. Federal Reserve. While the U.S. has earmarked about half of the $7 billion for the Afghan people, distributing those funds has moved slowly. While the Biden administration has exempted humanitarian activities from its sanctions regime against the Taliban, financial institutions remain hesitant to handle payments related to Afghanistan. The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that Afghanistan's gross domestic product has contracted by 35 percent since 2021, with near universal poverty levels. The U.N. Development Programme found that 91 percent of Afghan households surveyed said food was their top priority.
The Taliban's social and economic policies haven't helped matters. The group's hardline stance on women and minorities discourages donors from operating in the country. The Taliban's decision to ban poppy, a revenue stream for many in rural Afghanistan, leaves a $1 billion glut per year in total lost income. While revenue generation increased to more than $2 billion during the last fiscal year, the lack of private industry, the lingering impacts of international sanctions, and inflationary pressure mean Afghans are still living in crisis.
The Taliban government presents itself as a strong, unified administration. But the reality is more complex. According to researcher Hassan Abbas, the Taliban is riven by ideological differences, personal jealousies, and disputes over policy. Taliban emir Hibatullah Akhundzada wields a strong hand, particularly on social matters, but Taliban defense minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob and Taliban interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani have their own power bases. Yaqoob and Haqqani are open to expanding the Taliban's foreign relationships. Hibatullah has expressed no such sympathies.
In terms of foreign relations, the U.S. and the rest of the world are still coming to terms with a coherent policy toward the Taliban government. No country has officially recognized the Taliban government as legitimate. Even so, foreign embassies are still operating on Afghan soil. Most understand that the Taliban run the show. Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia, the U.S., and the Central Asian states have all engaged with the Taliban authorities on security matters. For some countries, like Pakistan, these conversations have been awkward; the Pakistani military alleged that the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) retains freedom of movement in Taliban-run Afghanistan, allowing the terrorist organization to triple the number of attacks since 2020. The Taliban government strongly denies the charge but has nevertheless tried to dissuade fighters from joining the fight against the Pakistani state.
The U.S., meanwhile, continues to pick its spots over engagement with the Taliban. U.S. envoy Thomas West has met with senior Taliban officials in Doha, Qatar, numerous times since the Taliban's August 2021 takeover of the country. The most recent meeting took place on July 31, during which U.S. officials "urged the Taliban to reverse policies responsible for the deteriorating human rights situation in Afghanistan" and "took note" of the Taliban's pledge to prevent Afghanistan from being used as a terrorist staging ground against the U.S. and its allies. The Taliban appears to have at least made an effort; there hasn't been a single anti-U.S. terrorist operation emanating from Afghanistan since August 2021. The U.S. will have no choice but to continue to collaborate with the Taliban to ensure those commitments are implemented over the long-term. Given the Taliban's consolidation of power in Afghanistan, this is the only prudent move. In the event backsliding occurs, the U.S. can utilize its globe-spanning counterterrorism apparatus to find, fix, and finish off high-profile terrorists just as it did when Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in Kabul in July 2022.
The story of the Taliban's governance of Afghanistan has yet to be fully written. Whatever the future holds, Afghanistan's neighbors, not the U.S., will have to do the heavy lifting.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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